The ship-design discussion pauses to explain why the scenario cannot be projected indefinitely. Each institutional, diplomatic, and technical choice rests on an earlier assumption that may itself be uncertain. After enough layers, familiar events no longer provide a reference point against which to test the next claim. Detailed predictions then become expressions of the author's preferences rather than disciplined historical inference. That provides a practical rule for deciding where an alternate-history analysis should stop.
Notable Point · 2:05:22-2:05:50
When an alternate-history projection loses its reference points
Compounding assumptions eventually move a counterfactual too far from documented history to support reliable detailed prediction.