Alternate history can test a proposed explanation by changing one bounded variable and asking whether the same outcome still follows logically. If the outcome changes, that points to a causal relationship worth examining. If it survives the intervention, the altered factor may not explain it. Here the intervention is discretionary funding for the Third Sea Lords, which leaves the officeholders in place while changing their ability to support research.
Notable Point · 2:15:18-2:16:32
Alternate history as a tool for testing causation
Changing one bounded variable can test whether an accepted chain of events still follows and reveal which causes deserve closer study.