The episode widens from Toyoda's individual decisions to the coalition strength gathering against Japan in 1944-45. With Germany's surface fleet no longer the same strategic constraint, British naval power could shift east, while Italian, French, and other Allied resources might also support a major invasion. An assault on Japan would demand immense naval support and accept heavy casualties, discouraging the Allies from withholding usable forces. Even Japanese victories in one or two battles would therefore bring still more Allied ships and new construction into the theatre. The watch point explains why operational success could delay defeat without repairing Japan's strategic position.
Notable Point · 18:38-20:30
The Allied fleets converging on an invasion of Japan
A prospective invasion would have drawn British, American, and other Allied naval resources against a Japanese fleet that could not replace its losses.