Q&A ยท 1:44:57-1:48:28

Air-power predictions and changing military technology

Aviation advocates predicted important future capabilities while misjudging when and how they would become practical.

Question

Were the interwar air-power prophets eventually right, but for the wrong reasons?

Short answer

Often yes: they anticipated important capabilities while misunderstanding their timing, form, and the defenses they would face.

Notes

Aviation advocates often recognized genuine future possibilities. Their error was commonly the form and timing of the capability rather than the broad idea that air power would become decisive. They also failed to anticipate many of the radar-guided guns, missiles, and other defenses that would shape later air warfare. Modern precision air power therefore fulfills parts of their prediction by very different means. It resembles little of Giulio Douhet's vision of mass city attacks by fleets of bombers carrying chemical or biological weapons.