What if Admiral Lee ignored Halsey's orders and turned his battleships toward the Seventh Fleet's call for help?
Short answerThe Americans are favored in the hypothetical battle, but a Japanese victory or serious American losses remain possible and would make Lee's disobedience much harder to defend.
NotesWillis Lee is judged unlikely to disobey a direct order, even if Kurita's Center Force appeared and offered a strong reason to intervene. If Lee nevertheless turned south at flank speed, the encounter could become the war's last major action involving several battleships. Kurita's limited reconnaissance might leave him unaware of the approaching Americans until they opened fire. The Americans are given the better mathematical prospects, while Japanese fighting ability, especially in daylight, keeps the result uncertain. Victory could soften the response to Lee's disobedience, but losses of capital ships would be harder to explain away than damage to ships able to return to Ulithi.