Ordinary friction between German and American ships would probably be contained by the Royal Navy. British ships deliberately interposing themselves create the narrow route to a larger war: American fire aimed at a German vessel instead strikes a British ship, causes casualties, and is publicly celebrated rather than apologized for. A lost ship, deaths, and triumphalist statements would trap both governments behind public honor and make a negotiated retreat harder. The episode therefore depends on unusually intransigent commanders and a harder-line American political leadership rather than the historical actors simply choosing war.
Notable Point · 27:29-37:57
Accidental escalation and British interposition
The counterfactual turns on an American-German clash accidentally hitting a British ship, followed by a refusal to apologize that leaves London little room to de-escalate.