An atomic-free counterfactual starts with Japan and Soviet supply limits

How would a world without nuclear weapons change military development and doctrine?

The effects on Japan must be considered first, followed by the loss of nuclear deterrence in the Cold War and the continuing limits of Soviet logistics.

The absence of atomic weapons would require reconsidering the end of the war against Japan before examining Cold War military development. In the scenario, the Allies would lose a weapon regarded here as a guarantee against further Soviet advance. Soviet logistics are nevertheless judged unable to sustain indefinite westward movement. In this interpretation, the wartime stopping point in Germany reflected the reach of the Soviet supply system. The counterfactual separates nuclear deterrence from the logistical limits that already constrained operations.