How one salvo could turn Tsingtao into war

The counterfactual begins when the confrontation becomes an exchange of fire. At the ranges described, Birmingham could inflict serious damage on the Japanese heavy cruisers, although their greater number of eight-inch guns would likely destroy her. The ships were so close that some British torpedoes might not have had enough distance to arm. HMS Falmouth could escape the wrecked harbor force long enough to broadcast how the engagement began. The political effect of a British cruiser lost in a neutral harbor would be much larger than the tactical episode itself and could encourage wider intervention.