A contained Germany faces a different 1941 crisis

The scenario does not insist on one German decision toward the Soviet Union, but argues that either war for oil or continued dependence on Soviet supply becomes more difficult. By late 1941 Germany could be short of resources, under attack at critical industrial sites, and fighting resistance in occupied France. An invasion of the Soviet Union might become more tempting as a search for oil, yet more dangerous because Germany begins it from a weaker economic position. A destroyed Italian battle fleet and defeat in North Africa could remove Mussolini or push Italy toward neutrality. Pearl Harbor would therefore meet a European war in which Germany is more contained and Britain has fewer urgent commitments.