Q&A · 2:21:40-2:23:46

A 1949 attack on Hong Kong risks an immediate wider war

The panel doubts a democratic outcome and instead expects the attack to risk a wider war, using 1949 as the earliest plausible date.

Question

What if Mao's forces tried to annex Hong Kong after World War II, and could the resulting conflict change China's political development?

Short answer

The panel doubts a democratic outcome and instead expects the attack to risk a wider war, using 1949 as the earliest plausible date.

Notes

The discussion initially considers 1945 before settling on 1949 as the earliest plausible date for the attack. It assumes British, American, Australian, and other forces are already present for operations in the area. Under that premise, an assault could engage several powers at once. Sailors who had recently fought alongside one another might respond before orders to stay out of the fighting arrived. Rapid escalation is therefore considered a risk, while a democratic outcome for China is doubted.